"Boy," you might be saying, "this blog has sure posted a lot this month!" You're right! In fact, March so far has had at least twice as many page views as any other month in the existence of this blog. Figuring that this is about as successful as this is ever going to get, I figured I'll just keep posting while the going is hot.
Recently I attended a fair number of arena curling games. People who attend arena curling games often enjoy things like expensive beer, ridiculously addictive popcorn, curling (sometimes), and the 50/50 draw.
A fun way to think about casino games and lotteries (if you're me) is based on their expected return (ok, it's actually not fun at all).
Take Roulette, for instance. If you pick a solid colour in Roulette you have an 18/38 chance of winning, where winning would double your money. Doubling your money isn't quite good enough to break even, though, because 18/38 is slightly less than half. As a result, for every dollar you spend on Roulette, you'd expect to lose 5.26 cents. This is the house edge for Roulette, and what ensures that the casino always comes out on top.
Other common casino games have house edges like 1.41% (pass line in craps), 1.06% (banker bet in Baccarat), and 0.43% (perfect play in Blackjack without counting cards). Slot machines will often run house edges ranging from 7%-15%.
Lotteries are a little bit different. Lotto 6/49, for instance, runs a house edge of about 30%, Keno gambling is approximately 30%-40% depending on the rules, and I suspect that sports betting using SportSelect can get as high as 30%-50%.
Now that we have a reference point, we can compare 50/50 lotteries to these other games. In a basic 50/50 game, everyone could buy $5 tickets, and one person would win 50% of all the money paid into the lottery. Buying one ticket would give you a 1/n chance of winning, and you would win an amount of money equivalent to n/2 time the price per ticket, at a cost of entry of that same price per ticket. As a result, your expected loss per ticket purchased is 50%. This is way worse than pretty much anything else.
Things get a little bit more complicated though. Many arenas nowadays offer the option of paying $5 for 1 ticket, $10 for 3 tickets, or $20 for 10 tickets. Apart from the obvious differences in price per ticket (making $20 for 10 seem a substantially better deal already), how do these different options translate into house edges?
Fortunately I made another set obscure and hard-to-read ternary plots for ya! Check it out:
Due to me not thinking before colouring, the axes are a bit backwards. Along the bottom is the fraction of sales for the $5/1 combo, along the right hand side is the fraction of sales for the $10/3 combo, and along the left hand side is the fraction of sales for the $20/10 combo. If you've never read one of these, check out this cool website on how to do so.
In general, the house edge depends on what everyone else buys, which makes sense. It's interesting just how large this effect is, though. Buying a single ticket for $5 ranges from a house edge of 50% (if everyone else does too) to 80% (if everyone else buys the best combo).
Buying three tickets for $10 ranges from a house edge of 25%-70%, and buying ten tickets for $20 ranges from a house edge of 50% to a player edge of 25%. The player edge, of course, only occurs if you are one of a very tiny number of people buying the $20/10 combo.
Though I can't find any sources for the actual distribution at sporting events, if we had an even split in sales then we'd be looking at a house edge ranging from 40%-75%, depending on which package is purchased. This is by far the worst set of house odds out of any of the games previously mentioned.
50/50 draws are maybe justified in the sense that the money primarily goes to charities, but as an investment (or even just a source of gambling for fun) they're really probably one of the worst things you can do.
See ya!
250 comments:
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How To Get Your Ex Lover/Partner/Boyfriend/Girlfriend/Wife Or Husband Back
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Margaret Loughrey
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so i contacted him through his email and he assured me that i will win big. he asked me to give him two day so he can make some prayers on my behalf so that the winning numbers will be revealed to him, so i waited for two days the second day he sent me the number to play, so i play the game i never had it in my mind that i was going to win such amount of money, so on that faithful day i went to check the game on April 16, 2021 and behold i got the biggest shock of my life i won $2,000,000 and from that moment my life changed.
all thanks to Dr Graceondu, i want to also advice everyone out there to also contact him if you have been playing lottery and you have never won.
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Lord Bubuza is like a God on Earth, I have seen and experienced the reason why people call him a God on Earth, I never believed that men like him existed. I contacted lord Bubuza for help via WhatsApp: +1 984 240 7211 to win a lottery after reading different testimonies on the internet on how he predicted lottery winning and gave winning numbers to people to play and they won. He responded and said that he would cast a spell to predict my winning, I provided his requirements and did as he instructed. After casting the spell he gave me some numbers and a lottery website where to play the lottery game. After playing as he instructed I won $781,999,000 Euro. This man has made my life beautiful with his lottery winning number. I have made a vow to myself that I will testify of his miraculous spell for making me a millionaire. Contact lord Bubuza via WhatsApp: +1 984 240 7211 of e-mail: lordbubuzamiraclework @ hotmail . com
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I can never stop thanking lord Bubuza, this man has changed my life with his lottery spell. I love playing the lottery games and I have never won but after reading testimonies of people who played the lottery game with the lottery winning numbers lord Bubuza gave them and they won massively so I decided to contact lord Bubuza too for help via WhatsApp: +1 951 442 2214. He told me what I needed to do so that he will cast the spell and give me the lottery winning number which I did, after the spell was casted lord Bubuza gave me some digit numbers and told me where and how to play the game, it was amazing because I played once and I won 30,000,000 dollars (thirty millions dollars). This man is a god on Earth, he is a great Psychic and a life changer. I will continue to thank him for making me a millionaire. Do you need help to win a lottery? Contact him today via WhatsApp: +1 951 442 2214 or email: lordbubuzamiraclework@hotmail.com
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I have been unlucky playing the Lottery over the years. I couldn't take the pain anymore and I searched for help online. I saw random positive reviews of DR AMBER saying how he has been helpful with his spells. I visited his webpage: ( amberlottotemple.com ) and he told me what was required to get what I seek for done and I accepted. He did a reading for me that made it clear to him that I was going to become a MEGA JACKPOT winner and he gave me the right numbers to play the Lottery. I had faith in him and I went back to the store a few days later to confirm if I have won and while the clerk was checking my ticket. I heard her say, ‘Oh my God! I looked up and saw the Big Winner screen of $36,449,852.60. I was completely shocked, but calm. It feels amazing – I can’t imagine this shift in my life and I want to appreciate this man DR AMBER for his help. It’s not everybody that is naturally lucky to win the Lottery but the solution to win is DR AMBER. Here's his phone number +1 808 481 5132 or E-mail: amberlottotemple@yahoo.com
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My name is Laarni Bibal the winner of $522 million dollars san Diego California lottery jackpot back in June 2019 with the help of a spell caster called lord Bubuza. Before winning the jackpot, I have played the lottery game without luck so I went online for research and saw how people praised lord Bubuza for giving them lottery winning numbers and they won a huge sum of money. I spoke to him for help via WhatsApp: +1 951 442 2214 he responded and said a spell will be cast and a good luck prayer will be done for me in his temple. I followed his instructions and after the spell was casted he gave me some numbers and said it was my winning numbers revealed to him by his Oracle. I went home and bought a $2 Mega Millions ticket at Sorrento Deli-Mart in San Diego. After buying the tickets, I felt luck coming my way because of lord Babura's spell and prayer so I hid the ticket in a secret place where no one knew about. Behold my heart was beating fast when I was notified that I won the $522 million dollars so I took the cash option of $340 million dollars. I am making the testimony because Lord Bubuza is a great PSYCHIC, His spell made me a millionaire. contact him via WhatsApp: +1 951 442 2214 or email: lordbubuzamiraclework @ hotmail . com
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HOW I WON TWO LOTTERY TICKET IN ONE DAY.
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Lord Bubuza is a great seer, he is a man who reveals lottery numbers after casting a spell in his temple. My name is Keith Burge, I won a $1 million dollars power ball lottery game after He cast a spell for me and He gave me the lottery winning number. What more can say to thank him. I will forever be grateful to him. for more information contact him via website: Lordbubuzamiraclework.com
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